From my omnipresent standpoint, the 5 real contenders are, in no particular order: Tim Duncan, Lebron James, Chris Paul, Kevin Garnett, and Kobe Bryant. Guys like Carlos Boozer, Brandon Roy, Dwight Howard, Baron Davis, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Chauncey Billups, and Tracy McGrady have all had their names mentioned as well. Allow me to shut them down one by one.Boozer, despite being a top 25 player in the league, can't be the true MVP of the league if he isn't even the most valuable player on his own team (Deron Williams). Brandon Roy was getting slurped by all the critics when the Blazers went on that mid-season winning streak. Now that the team is coming back to their senses, so are all the critics. Dwight "Superman II" Howard is a monster, and the 2nd best center in the game behind Duncan, but turnovers, inconsistency, and playing with a below average point guard in a below average conference hurt his chances. Baron Davis didn't even make the All-Star team, plus many say Stee-Jack is the heart and soul of that team. Nash's defense (or lack there of) is finally beginning to be discussed openly. He gets 20 and 10 dropped on him too consistently from the top ones in the West (Paul, D-Wil, Baron, Tony Parker, etc). Dirk Nowitzki could have averaged 32, 14, 6, 3, and 3 this year, and the league would still have refused to give him the back-to-back after he took it like anal queen Taylor Rain from Stephen Jackson and the Golden State Warriors in last year's first round.
Chauncey "I have the goofiest name ever and nobody seems to realize it" Billups suffers in the same way that Boozer does. Most people don't know it, but Rasheed Wallace has been the most valuable player on the Pistons since he's gotten there. Very few players can score inside and out, play both front court positions on both sides of the floor, and guard the opposing team's best big man without fouling. Proof of his value lies in how smoothly the Pistons transitioned after losing Ben Wallace two years ago. Better proof lies in how when 'Sheed flipped out like a drunken homeless man clearing out a late night burrito joint in last year's playoffs against The Lebrons, the Pistons promptly tanked. Chauncey drives that team, but 'Sheed is the backbone.
The darkhorse is T-Mac. Allow me to go out on the limb here and say that if McGrady had never had these recurring back issues and ever had a chance to play with a great coach earlier in his career who demanded his accountability at the defensive end, we might be talking about him in the same light as we have the Kobe's, Duncans, and KG's over the last 7 or so years. A 6-8 terror who could score from anywhere, was practically unguardable, and could jump out of the gym. He still drops 22, 6 and 5 consistently, but you can literally see the strain in his eyes as he rises to the basket on a drive and can barely get a runner up and over a shot blocker, when 5 years ago he would have dunked with ease. He deserves an entire article here. But the bottom line is this: he's gotten a depleted Rockets team up to third place 3/4 of the way through the season in the most difficult conference any of us has ever seen. If he keeps it up through season's end, then his name does deserve to be mentioned in the original 5 that I pointed out earlier.Now, let's get to the 5 true MVP candidates. These are the five we immediately think of, and rightfully so. Before I breakdown their pros and cons, let me first remind you of the 5 categories used to determine most valuable player. IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER:
3) Who got the most out of his teammates (not who did the most despite his teammates)?
4) Who, relatively, is the most valuable player to his team?
5) Who is the most clutch player or who performed the biggest in the biggest and/or closest games?
I will rank the 5 players in each of the five categories.
Chris Paul: 21.3 ppg, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 2.7 steals, 49 FG%. Hornets: 43 - 20.
I've often said of all the positive influences Michael Jordan had on the game of basketball, the one negative was that classic point guards became non-existent. Before MJ, kids who playe
d point guard on their YMCA or school teams focused more on ball handling and passing than scoring. Coaches taught it more consistently. Little men wanted to be more like Magic or Stockton. But the MJ Effect changed everything. Every player under 6'4" wanted to be a scorer. They practiced shooting fade away jumpers or circus shots driving to the basket. Come to think of it, every player taller than 6'4" wanted to play like Michael too. If Kevin Garnett came along 25 years ago, his coaches would have told him to get his ass on the block or he'd be sitting next to them. No way would a Dirk Nowitzki be allowed to jack up a 2o footer from the top of the key on an iso with a man in his face and have that be called a "good shot" for him. Anyone above 6'9" played in the paint, or he simply wouldn't play.That is what is so refreshing about CP3. He's the face of a revolution, the Reincarnation of the Classic Point Guard. Guys learning the game now are not watching MJ drop 40 every Sunday on NBC. They're being taught what a true point guard does, which is be the primary ball handler, make good decisions with the ball, be the coach on the floor, and run the team's offense while still being a scoring threat. These are the guys who watched Jason Kidd and Steve Nash growing up. For every Iverson and Arenas, there now is a Tony Parker or a Deron Williams or a Devin Harris.
Or a Chris Paul. If I'm starting a franchise and I get to have the team for the next ten years, my first pick is Lebron, followed by Dwight Howard, possibly Greg Oden, and then Paul. He's that good. 21, 11, and 3! From a 3rd year player! Are you kidding? He's looking like a combination of Isiah in the late 80's and Tim Hardaway in the early 90's, the only two classic point guards ever who could put up 20 and 10 out of habit. He consistently eats up the opposing team's point guard, including Nash and Parker and Baron and Bibby and Kidd (and he finally exorcised the demon that was Deron Williams last week).
Stats-wise he's earned MVP recognition. He's got the "team success" front covered too. 42 - 20 in the hardest conference ever. Most people thought they'd struggle to make the playoffs, not struggle to have the best record in the West. He's made everyone around him better. Peja has rediscovered himself in N'Awlins. He was wasting away in Sac-town and was completely lost in Indiana. He gets 3 - 5 open looks from 3 simply by his man collapsing on CP3's penetration. His shooting % is way up and he doesn't need to put up as many bad shots. David West has become an all-star power forward in a conference full of all-star power forwards. Tyson Chandler has become an olympian, from "bust" to "bad ass" in 1 1/2 seasons. Jannero Pargo is getting legitimate minutes for the first time in his career as a shooting guard because Paul sets him up for so many good looks. CP3 is by far the most important player on his team. In fact, you can make the argument that NO ONE in the league is more important to his team's success than Paul is to the Hornets. Everything is run through him, every play. Byron Scott totally trusts him on the floor. He's their most talented player, most exciting player, leader on and off the court, and the heart and soul of their team.
Of the 5 candidates, I have him 4th however. That's not really a knock on him. It's more of a compliment to the three I rank ahead of him. The biggest objection I have to CP3 winning the MVP is that he doesn't do it at both ends (yet). KG, Duncan, Kobe, and even Lebron, when forced to, can and do shut down the opposing player at their position. You might say, "But look at his steals. He's averaging almost 3 a game!" That's a misleading stat. Iverson has averaged more than 2 steals a game practically his whole career, and he lets more people get passed him than the backdoor bouncer at the Dresden in "Swingers". Yes, Paul usually outscores his opposing point guard, but it's still too close for comfort.
Overall analysis: 1-Stats) 3rd, 2-Team) 4th, 3-Teammates) 4th, 4-Value) 1st, 5-Clutch) 3rd
Kevin Garnet: 18.8 ppg, 9.8 rbs, 3.5 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.4 stl, 54 FG%, Celtics: 51-12
My favorite player in the league along with The Diesel. If only this guy was in his prime right now. How great would this Celtics team be? I imagine if you polled every basketball fan in the country on who their favorite player is, and told them they weren't allowed to vote for anyone on their favorite team, KG would probably win in a landslide.
Through the first half of the season, the Big Ticket had this award locked up. But then Lebron became Jordanesque and the Lakers, Hornets and Spurs all went on huge runs. And then he got hurt. These are the reasons why he's dropped out of the top 2 or 3 conversation. He's still up there though, and if the Celtics get 65 wins or more, it's going to be very hard to not give him the award.
The impact he's had on this team cannot be measured. 24 - 58 last year, as I'm writing this they are 51 and 12. The reason for this is, quite simply, Garnett. As much as I love Ray Allen's game, his influence has been far more tempered by the intensity of KG and the revitalized game of Paul Pierce. More importantly, they gave up an average of 99.2 p/pg last year. This year: 90.2, good for top 3 in the league. Don't tell me this is Jesus Shuttlesworth's doing. He's got worse ankles than James Caan by the end of "Misery" and usually guards the other team's scrub. But a nine point difference in one season? This never happens. It's almost impossible to comprehend. As is KG's influence.
gets at least 1 or 2 open dunks or layups per game from feeds by KG, the best passing big man in the game today. Plus he's become a decent post defender, allowing KG to roam and get into passing lanes. Rondo is averaging double figures now, his confidence soaring. KG has taken him under his wing. He is in his face after every play, encouraging him or giving advice. Paul Pierce has become one of the best all-around players in the game. He's the go-to guy down the stretch and he's also developed into a lock down defender, something he was never known to do, or, more importantly, asked to do.This is what KG does. He DEMANDS accountability from his teammates. Last year, if Pierce's man scored on him - no big deal. This year, if scored on, he's embarrassed, as is the rest of the team. The change in mentality is amazing. The "KG Impact" is bigger than anything since Barkley's arrival in Phoenix in the summer of '92 and Moses Malone's influence in Philly in '82. Both those players won MVPs in their first year with their new teams. More importantly, both those players took their teams to the Finals at the end of the season. Count on KG to to do the same.
The Celtics have the best record in the game, so he's got the team success factor covered. He's made everyone on the team better, including Rivers. (Whatever back room deal he and Ainge had established last season as they were giving games away more often than Bush gives away pardons to white collar oil criminals in order to get their hands on Oden, Rivers definitely seems to be more comfortable and interested this season than last.) The knocks against him are that his stats are sufficiently down from years passed. Injuries are a reason for that, as is there more capable scorers around him. And he's only 1 point and 1 rebound away from being a 20 and 10 guy once again. However, Pierce and Allen have been getting most of the looks down the stretch in close games, with Garnett appearing to be comfortable with handing them that responsibility. In Minnesota he'd be taking the last second shot. In Boston he's been setting the pick to free up Allen or Pierce. A true MVP doesn't do that. Plus, one could make the argument that Pierce is just as valuable to this team's success as KG, the evidence being they were 7 and 2 while he was injured. KG is still a top 5 candidate, but barely. (Side note: outside of seeing Erin Andrews spread eagle on your bed with the words "Enter here" written on her abdomen with an arrow pointing down, is there a sight any true sports fan would want to see more than KG clutching the O'Brian trophy with champaigne and tears flowing down his face a'la Michael Jordan in '91?)
Overall analysis: 1-Stats) 5, 2-Team) 1, 3-Teammates) 1, 4-Value) 5, 5-Clutch) 5
Tim Duncan: 19.8 ppg, 11.6 rbs, 1.9 blk, 3.1 ast, 50 FG%, Spurs record: 44-20
Tim
maaayyyy!! The overall best player in the league this decade. One of the best players of all time. Winner of 4 championships. Only 31 years old. By the time his career is over, where will he rank on the list of all-time great centers (And don't tell me he's a power forward. He's been playing center since the day he arrived in the NBA. The Spurs started two centers, Duncan and Robinson, 2 small forwards - Sean Elliot and Mario Elie, and 1 point guard - Avery Johnson, on that '99 team)? With Kareem, Russell, and Wilt definitely ranked ahead of him. It's a battle between him, Shaq, Hakeem, and Moses for the last two spots in the top 5. If he wins another 1 or 2 titles, he could crack into the top 3 someday.
This year his stats are slightly down, but you can count on him still finishing as a 20 and 10 guy by the end of the season. But, as usual, his name has been left out of the MVP conversation. Of course, as usual, he has his team set up as favorites heading into the playoffs. The problem with Duncan is that he is just so damn consistent. The things he does get taken so for granted. He's like the SpellCheck. As I'm writing this I know, as much as I try not to, I'll probably misspell a few words. But there's a comfort level in knowing when I'm finished, SpellCheck will clean up my mistakes. I should be thanking God every single day that he created someone smart enough to make the SpellCheck. But I take it for granted after a while. That's what Tim Duncan does. He allows for Parker, Bowen, Finley, and Ginobli to gamble and jump passing lanes because they know they got TD backing them up. He's the SpellCheck. He's up there with Russell, Cowens, Mutombo, Ewing, and Hakeem as one of the best big man team defenders. Not to mention he's pretty much a shut down one on one man. Come crunch time, it's him guarding the Boozers, Amares, and Garnetts, not Oberto. (This might change with Kurt Thomas's arrival.)
Ginobli is having a career year, and he has Duncan to thank for that. He gets doubled more than any other player in the NBA. This includes Lebron, Kobe, and anyone else you want to throw at me. Along with Shaq and KG, he's one of the best passing bigs in the game, and guys like Ginobli
and Parker know this. It's beautiful to watch them play because Duncan knows exactly where those two are going to be when the double comes. His dominance has allowed for the growth of Tony Parker, who is the second best point guard now behind Chris Paul, and Ginobli, who is the 3rd best 2 in the league behind Kobe and TMac. These two don't become the players they are today without the luxury of having been Tim Duncan's teammates.
Although he and Kobe are the two best players in the league this year, he probably won't get as many votes as Kobe or King James. Statistically he's doing fine and his team is second in the West. And he's definitely made his teammates better. But maybe that will come back to bite him now. Ginobli and Parker are so good that they can carry the team for long stretches with TD out and not skip a beat. Another interesting thing I've noticed is that Ginobli has become the go-to guy down the stretch. Where in the past, they'd dump it into Duncan, let him do his thing, and if the double comes they'd get an open look because they know TD will find them, now I'm seeing a lot more pick and role with Parker and Duncan and even more of Ginobli and Duncan, and it's been Ginobli getting those crunch time shots. A true MVP takes those shots. I love TD but he's 3rd on my list this year.
Overall analysis: 1-Stats) 4, 2-Team) 3, 3-Teammates) 3, 4-Value) 4, 5-Clutch) 4
Kobe Byrant: 28.2 ppg, 5.3 ast, 6.1 rbd, 2 stl, 35% 3-point, Lakers record: 45-20.
Lebron James: 30.9 ppg, 7.4 ast, 8.1 rbd, 1.9 stl, 1.1 blk, 49 FG%, Cavs: 37-29.
One of these two will win this award almost certainly. Unless the Rockets don't lose again for the rest of the season, in which case they'll have to give it to T-Mac, It's going to either Kobe or Lebron. Both are having incredible years. Trying to pick between the two is like trying to pick between DeNiro or Pacino. It's impossible to accomplish and almost sac religious to even try. So why bother? Instead thank God that you're alive right now and are able to witness their greatness. But for sake of argument and stupidity, I'm going to try to break them down one category at a time. God help me.
STATS) Lebron
Kobe is having a fantastic year. Most people have now declared him the best all around player in the league. And I agree, when you take into account his defense. Along with Artest, Battier, and Raja Bell, he may be the best one on one perimeter defender in the league. And with Ariza being injured and Luke Walton being white, Kobe is often asked to guard the opposing team's best perimeter scorer. And to do that and still put up 28+ is kind of Jordanesque. All that said, Lebron, statistically, is even more Jordanesque. In fact, only two players ever put up similar numbers: The late 80's Jordan and the early 60's Big O.
Oscar: '60-'61 - '65-'66: 30.45 ppg, 10.7 ast, 9.9 rbd. ('61-'62: 30.8 ppg, 11.4 ast, 12.5 rbd)
Michael: '86-'87 - '92-'93: 33.2 ppg, 6 ast, 6.4 rbd. ('88-'89: 32.5 ppg, 8 ast, 8 rbd)
We don't see these kinds of numbers often. That seven year stretch MJ had from his 37.1 point per game explosion he had in '87 till his first retirement in '93, you could count on him to give you 32, 7, and 7 just as much as you can count on Seinfeld to deliver a classic episode every week between its 4th season and it's 7th season. From the "Contest" episode to the season finale of Season 7 when George accidentally kills Susan and mourns by deciding to go get some coffee (poor Lilly), that was the best stretch of TV any sitcom has ever had. I truly believe Lebron is about to embark on a Seinfeld-esque streak. And the scary thing is he's only 23 years old. He'll be doing this for a while, people. The commercials are right; we are all witnesses to something special here. Lebron does everything for that team. He's pretty much unguardable, and in terms of physical talent, he's the best in the league.
I also want to mention that if he smartens up (and it will come with age), his stats should really increase quite a bit. He's shooting almost 50%, which is unheard of in today's NBA where shooting 45% is considered transcendent. MJ used to shoot 50+ percent every year and still average above 30. Lebron will be the first perimeter player to pull that off if he learns to discipline himself and not jack up 25 footers at the end of the shot clock. More of his shots should come from the post. At 6-8, 250, he should have a house built on the lower left block for him to live in, have barbeques, and throw parties. Once he realizes where his strengths lie, fuggedabodit, baby.
Clutch) Kobe
Kobe is the best clutch player since Michael. That's it, that's all. It's not a knock on Lebron. It's a compliment to Kobe. He's got ice in his veins in the 4th quarter. He and Sam Cassell are, I think, the only two players that are genuinely not the least bit frightened to take the final shot in the game. They have zero conscience. They might have missed their previous 25 shots, but in their mind, they're making that last one. Lebron definitely has an argument after he Jordaned the Pistons in last year's playoffs. And he's done the same to the Bulls and Wizards and Magic over the last few years. But Kobe's done it in the Finals countless times. He's got balls forged in the fires of playoff crunch time. He routinely leads the league in 4th quarter scoring. There is no one in the league today I'd rather have taking my final shot than Kobe, period.
Value) Lebron
Without Lebron, the Cavs would be the Grizzlies. That team is absolutely horrible. Not much more I can say really, other than if Ferry doesn't get his act together he won't be allowed to enter the state of Ohio after Lebron becomes a Brooklyn Net. Kobe's team has the best coach in the history of the game and a good mix of veterans and talented youngsters that can carry the team when Kobe is out.
Team) Kobe
The Lakers have the best record in the most competitive conference in the history of the NBA. The Cavs are only 8 games above .500 in one of the worst conferences in the history of the NBA. Lebron's tendency to dribble out the shot clock down the stretch and then try to go one on five in the closing seconds is not particularly conducive to winning games. That's partly Lebron's fault and partly Mike Brown's fault. But Kobe is the best closer in the game, and is still every bit as capable as Lebron at taking over and finishing a game down the stretch.
winner. They didn't give Jordan the "true winner" label until he beat Magic in '91. Perhaps Lebron will need to do the same before he gets "true winner" credit.Teammates) Kobe
A lot of lessons were learned following "The Great Disbanment of 1998" by then Bulls general manager, Jerry Krause. One was that we will never see another tandem like Scottie and Michael again. Another was that this might be the last great dynasty we will ever see. One more we be that Jerry "Humpty Dumpty" Krause would not be able to put a winning team back together again.
A few years went by and another lesson was taught to us. Whether or not we learned from it is still debatable. The lesson: Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan are two of the most underrated players ever. Hard to believe, right? Especially due to all the accolades given to Lord MJ over the years. But it's true. They are two of the most underrated players ever to lace 'em up. The proof lies in the post '98 careers of every teammate they had during that run.
RODMAN: Played 23 games with the Lakers in '99 and then 12 with the Mavs the year after. By 2001, he was out of the league.
LONGLEY: Played two unproductive seasons with the Suns before being traded to the Knicks were he stayed 1 year before retiring. He never averaged more than 8.7 ppg.
WENNINGTON: Played 38 games with the Bulls in '99 before signing with Sacramento where he played 7 games before retiring.
BUECHLER: Played another 6 seasons with 3 different teams, never appearing in more than 66 games and never averaging more than 5.5 ppg.
CAFFEY: Played another 6 seasons, only making the playoffs once with Milwaukee as a bench warmer.
RANDY BROWN: Played one more season with the Bulls before going to Boston, where he played 3 more seasons, never averaging more than 4.1 ppg.
Ron Harper, Toni Kukuc, and Steve Kerr were the only players to have any kind of success post '98, and that was simply as marginal role players.
My point to all this is simple: Scottie's and Michael's supporting cast SUCKED. They were terrible. Pippen and Jordan carried those guys to new levels during those championship years, levels they never reached before or since. This ability, the ability to bring up your teammates' level of play, to demand their accountability, is every bit as important as a player statistics and winning percentage when determing most valuable player.
Applying this to today's race, it especially stands out as the major difference between Kobe and Lebron. Kobe makes his teammates better. Lebron does not. All of Kobe's teammates have improved since playing with him, from Farmar to Fisher to Luke Walton and particularly to Andrew Bynum. Bryant has demanded they get better. All of Lebron's teammates have not improved. In fact, if anything, they've gotten worse. Larry Hughes was a borderline all-star before coming to play with King James, where he was labeled a bust. Ilgauskas was a former all-star, and his numbers have gotten worse nearly every year since James came into the league.Another way of looking at it is this. Look at the number of players remaining on the Cavs since Lebron was drafted in '02/'03. The answer: 1, Ilgauskas. Look at the number of players that have stayed with Kobe. Turiaff, Bynum, Mihm, Odom, Vujacic, and Walton have all been there at least 3 years. Plus Fisher actually came back to play with him. Now granted, they have a hall of fame coach that excels at putting his role players in a position to succeed. But ask yourself this: do you believe Andrew Bynum would have become the player he is today had he played with Lebron instead of Kobe. Look at the careers of Darius Miles and Dejuan Wagner. Where are they now?
Bottom line is this: Kobe could go out and average 35 a game like he did a couple years ago. He could put up Lebron numbers. But he knows, at this point in his career, he needs his role players playing well in order to win in the playoffs. Lebron hasn't learned how to do this yet. That is what makes Kobe Bryant better. And that is what makes him this year's MVP.
Lebron James - Overall analysis: Stats) 1, Team) 5, Teammates) 5, Value) 2, Clutch) 2
Kobe Bryant - Overall analysis: Stats) 2, Team) 2, Teammates) 2, Value) 3, Clutch) 1
